Start Date

Composite Highlight Threshold

Indicators Used In Composite (Checked = Included)

IndicatorWeight %

Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)

Sahm Rule

State Coincident Indicator

Leading Indicator

Initial Jobless Claims

Credit Spread (BAA-10Y)

Payroll Growth (YoY)

Industrial Production (YoY)

Financial Stress Index

Housing Permits (YoY)

Consumer Sentiment

Equity Trend (^GSPC vs 200D MA)

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Recession Assessment

Composite Risk

60.4

Regime

Elevated Risk

Data Through

2026-08-31

Weights sum to 100%.